Authors: Arthur van Benthem, Suzi Kerr
This report was commissioned by the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University, Stanford CA as PESD Working Paper #102
Voluntary opt-in programs to reduce emissions in unregulated sectors or countries have spurred considerable discussion. Since any regulator will make errors in predicting baselines and participants will self-select into the program, adverse selection will reduce efficiency and possibly environmental integrity. In contrast, pure subsidies lead to full participation but require large financial transfers.
We present a simple model to analyze this trade-off between adverse selection and infra-marginal transfers. We find that increasing the scale of voluntary programs both improves efficiency and reduces transfers. We show that discounting (paying less than full value for offsets) is inefficient and cannot be used to reduce the fraction of offsets that are spurious while setting stringent baselines generally can. Both approaches reduce the cost to the offsets buyer.
The effects of two popular policy options are less favorable than many believe:
This paper frames the issues in terms of avoiding deforestation but the results are applicable to any voluntary offset program.