Authors: Niven Winchester, John Reilly
Using an economy-wide model, we evaluate the impact of policies to meet South Korea’s Paris pledge to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37% relative those under business as usual (BAU) in 2030. Simulated BAU emissions in 2030 are 840.8 million metric tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), indicating that economy-wide emissions should be constrained to 529.7 MtCO2e. Under South Korea’s Emissions Trading System (KETS) and fuel economy standards, a 2030 carbon price of $88/tCO2e is needed to meet this goal. Without considering benefits from avoided climate damages, these policies reduce 2030 GDP by $21.5 billion (1.0%) and consumer welfare by 8.1 billion (0.7%). Declines in sectoral production are largest for fossil-based energy sectors and chemical, rubber and plastic products, and iron and steel sectors.
Winchester, Niven and John M Reilly. 2019. "The economic, energy, and emissions impacts of climate policy in South Korea." Climate Change Economics https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007819500106